0000
Explore · Players
Defender for Bournemouth, £4.5m.
DefenderBournemouth
Adam Smith
Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.
xPts next
0.9
His projected score in the next gameweek.
xPts window
5.4
5 fixtures in GW6–10.
xMins
31
38% to start, 33% to reach 60 minutes.
Ownership
0.1%
Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.
Form
1.0
FPL’s own recent-form average.
Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v CHE (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4. Rates from 1363 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 86% own record / 14% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
What this projection could see
Projected from his full record: 10 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.
Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.
Goal threat
0.00 xG per 90
Not ranked: 434 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.
Chance creation
0.02 xA per 90
Not ranked: 434 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.
Attacking involvement
0.02 xGI per 90
Not ranked: 434 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.
Defensive work
The schedule ahead
The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.
Set-piece duty
FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[64].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated just now · confidence: high
Availability
FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.
No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.
Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.
Price
£4.5m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[64].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated just now · confidence: high
Since the season opened
+0.0m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[64].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated just now · confidence: high
Owned
0.1%
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[64].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated just now · confidence: high
His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of most players right now.
2025/26
58 pts · 0 goals · 2 assists
Points, by where they come from
P(start) 0.38 x [P(60+|start) 0.85 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.07 x 1pt
Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.
4.4 defensive actions per 90
Not ranked: 434 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.
Defensive solidity
1.39 xGC per 90
Not ranked: 434 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.
Starting security
13% of team games started
Not ranked: 434 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.
Bonus pull
2.9 BPS per 90
Not ranked: 434 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.
Value
0.9 points per £m
Not ranked: 434 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.
Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.
2024/25
57 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
2023/24
80 pts · 0 goals · 3 assists
2022/23
74 pts · 0 goals · 1 assists
2019/20
49 pts · 0 goals · 1 assists
2018/19
70 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists
2017/18
56 pts · 1 goals · 3 assists
2016/17
104 pts · 1 goals · 5 assists
2015/16
84 pts · 2 goals · 0 assists
2012/13
0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
2011/12
1 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
P(60+) 0.33 x P(0 conceded) 0.23 (xGC90 1.40 x fixture 1.25) x 4pt
P(start) 0.38 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.48 over 76 mins + P(cameo) 0.07 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.43 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.40 x fixture 1.25)
yellow90 0.28, red90 0.001 x 0.34 of a match
bonus90 0.19 x sqrt(fixture) 0.89 x 0.34 of a match
xA90 0.04 x fixture 0.80 x 0.34 of a match x 3pt
xG90 0.02 x fixture 0.80 x 0.34 of a match x 6pt
P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.03 at 6.0/90 x P(start) 0.38 x 2pt
Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v CHE (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4. Rates from 1363 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 86% own record / 14% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The spread around it
Ceiling (90th)
3.0
Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 A v CHE (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4. Rates from 1363 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 86% own record / 14% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Floor (10th)
0.0
Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 A v CHE (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4. Rates from 1363 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 86% own record / 14% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 10+
0%
Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 A v CHE (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4. Rates from 1363 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 86% own record / 14% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 2 or fewer
90%
Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 A v CHE (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4. Rates from 1363 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 86% own record / 14% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The minutes model
Starts
38%
Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Reaches 60 minutes
33%
Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Off the bench
7%
Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Does not appear
54%
Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1073min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1586min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2148min); status=a (available); age 35.4
What this model does not include
Read before trusting the number
What FPL itself projects for GW6
FPL’s ep_next
1.0
Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[64].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated just now · confidence: high
Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.
What this is built from
Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.