Reading the gameweek calendar, the player list and the fixture schedule from the FPL API.
Reading the gameweek calendar, the player list and the fixture schedule from the FPL API.
Reading the gameweek calendar, the player list and the fixture schedule from the FPL API.
Decisions
Who to captain in GW2, under three different attitudes to risk — and what each choice is worth.
B.Fernandes MUNMIDH IPS88% to start
The armband adds
On top of the 5.6 he is projected either way.
Projection · basis: Extra points the armband adds to B.Fernandes in GW2: his projected 5.6 multiplied by 2, less the 5.6 he scores without it. The multiplier is Captain point multiplier = 2. FPL does not publish it in a machine-readable form — https://fantasy.premierleague.com/help/rules — "Your captain's score will be doubled" xPts for GW2, projected by this product from each player's completed-season record and the published fixture list. It is the same figure the ranked list, a player's own page, a comparison and the pitch show — the same number, not a close one. 186 of 604 players have appeared so far in 2026/27; the rest have no minutes yet and are projected from a price-and-position cohort prior instead. Every player is projected from his full record of completed seasons, read for all 604 of them at once and shared by every screen. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Over Haaland
What the armband is worth on him rather than on Haaland, the next-best candidate on this reading.
Projection · basis: Points gained in GW2 by putting the armband on B.Fernandes rather than on Haaland: the difference between their projections (5.6 and 5.2), multiplied by the extra 1 copy the armband adds. xPts for GW2, projected by this product from each player's completed-season record and the published fixture list. It is the same figure the ranked list, a player's own page, a comparison and the pitch show — the same number, not a close one. 186 of 604 players have appeared so far in 2026/27; the rest have no minutes yet and are projected from a price-and-position cohort prior instead. Every player is projected from his full record of completed seasons, read for all 604 of them at once and shared by every screen. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The case
B.Fernandes is projected to score more than anyone else you can captain — 5.6, with the armband adding another 5.6 on top. He is at home to IPS in a fixture FPL rates 2 of 5 and he takes MUN’s penalties. The nearest alternative is Haaland; the armband is worth 0.4 more on B.Fernandes than on him.
The armband multiplies him by 2, adding 5.6. Under a Triple Captain the same pick would multiply him by 3 instead, adding 11.2 — which is what a chip week is being measured against, not a reason to play one.
A meaningful share of this figure still rests on players like him rather than on his own record. No football has been played in this season, so nothing about GW2 can be higher than a projection: the minutes are modelled, not confirmed, and a lineup is published an hour before kick-off.
A 23% chance of 2 points or fewer, and the armband multiplies that as readily as it multiplies a haul: in the worst tenth of his weeks the extra copies are worth 1.0. He is 88% to start, so there is also a 12% chance the armband lands on a substitute appearance or nothing at all.
Haaland becomes the stronger pick if what B.Fernandes actually returns falls below 5.2 points. It stands at 5.6 points. That is inside the range this product treats as plausible. What Haaland actually returns above 5.6 points would do it too.
There is not enough between these to call one of them the answer.
Vice-captain
Haaland is the next-best armband on the same reading, and he is the one who inherits it if B.Fernandes does not play at all. That is a 5% chance this gameweek, which makes the vice worth 0.3 in expectation — a small decision that costs nothing to get right.
Worth in expectation
It only pays out in the 5% of weeks B.Fernandes plays no minutes at all.
Projection · basis: What the vice-captaincy adds in GW2 before the fact: the chance B.Fernandes plays no minutes at all (5%, from the minutes model behind his projection) multiplied by what the armband would then be worth on Haaland. It is an expectation over both outcomes, not a forecast of either. xPts for GW2, projected by this product from each player's completed-season record and the published fixture list. It is the same figure the ranked list, a player's own page, a comparison and the pitch show — the same number, not a close one. 186 of 604 players have appeared so far in 2026/27; the rest have no minutes yet and are projected from a price-and-position cohort prior instead. Every player is projected from his full record of completed seasons, read for all 604 of them at once and shared by every screen. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Haaland projected
MCI · 86% to start. The armband would be worth 5.2 on him.
Projection · basis: Haaland, GW2. xPts for GW2, projected by this product from each player's completed-season record and the published fixture list. It is the same figure the ranked list, a player's own page, a comparison and the pitch show — the same number, not a close one. 186 of 604 players have appeared so far in 2026/27; the rest have no minutes yet and are projected from a price-and-position cohort prior instead. Every player is projected from his full record of completed seasons, read for all 604 of them at once and shared by every screen. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
How this reading works
Ranked by the projection itself: the most points expected, with the shape of the outcome treated as neither a bonus nor a penalty. All three readings name B.Fernandes. They order the rest of the field differently, so the agreement is at the top rather than everywhere.
The ranking
No FPL team is connected, so there is no squad to read. A team id is public information — nothing here ever asks for your password. No side is known in this browser either, so this ranks every player instead — build a side of 11 and it ranks that.
5.6 projected1.0 floor11.0 ceiling15% haul88% to start51.3% owned
5.2 projected1.0 floor10.0 ceiling13% haul86% to start69.2% owned
4.9 projected0.0 floor10.0 ceiling12% haul83% to start38.3% owned
4.7 projected0.0 floor11.0 ceiling13% haul73% to start10.6% owned
4.6 projected1.0 floor9.0 ceiling6% haul92% to start9.1% owned
4.5 projected1.0 floor9.0 ceiling8% haul87% to start5.2% owned
4.1 projected1.0 floor8.0 ceiling5% haul87% to start10.1% owned
4.1 projected0.0 floor9.0 ceiling8% haul72% to start64.1% owned
4.1 projected1.0 floor8.0 ceiling5% haul79% to start29.6% owned
4.0 projected1.0 floor8.0 ceiling6% haul76% to start10.1% owned
4.0 projected1.0 floor8.0 ceiling3% haul100% to start4.4% owned
4.0 projected1.0 floor7.0 ceiling3% haul92% to start18.0% owned
What this cannot tell you
The gap between what FPL publishes and what a captaincy decision would ideally know. It is shown rather than filled.
Every FPL squad FPL publishes the share of all squads holding each player, and this product reads it verbatim.
Captain effective ownership FPL publishes who is owned. It has never published who is captained, in any group of managers, at any point in a season. Everything you have seen elsewhere calling itself captain effective ownership was assembled by reading squads one by one, and before the first deadline there are no squads to read. A number here would be a guess with a decimal point on it, and a wrong one flips a differential call the wrong way round — so this product shows the gap instead.
The top thousandThe top ten thousandThe top hundred thousand FPL publishes no ownership figure for any slice of the table, only for all squads at once. It would take reading hundreds of thousands of individual squads one at a time — and before the first deadline of the season those squads are not readable at all.
Managers still playing FPL does not say which entries are still being played, so there is no honest denominator for “active managers”. It would take reading hundreds of thousands of individual squads one at a time — and before the first deadline of the season those squads are not readable at all.
One player in your starting XI wears the armband, and his score is multiplied by 2. The multiplier applies to everything he scores, including negative points from cards and goals conceded.
You also name a vice-captain. If your captain plays no minutes at all, the armband passes to the vice-captain automatically. If neither the captain nor the vice-captain plays, no captain multiplier is applied at all.
Captain point multiplier = 2. FPL does not publish it in a machine-readable form — https://fantasy.premierleague.com/help/rules — "Your captain's score will be doubled"