Reading the gameweek calendar, the player list and the fixture schedule from the FPL API.
Reading the gameweek calendar, the player list and the fixture schedule from the FPL API.
Reading the gameweek calendar, the player list and the fixture schedule from the FPL API.
Reading the player list from the FPL API and projecting every player for the coming gameweeks.
Explore · Players
Forward for Aston Villa, £5.5m.
ForwardAston Villa
Tammy Abraham
FPL saysKnock - 75% chance of playing
Nothing on record ranks this player yet. The projection below is built from players of the same position and price, and its confidence is medium.
xPts GW2
What this product expects him to score in the next gameweek.
Projection · basis: xPts: GW2 H v ARS (FDR 4); fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.05) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason; minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9; rates from 755 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% FWD/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 279 players with a completed season, independent of which individual records this screen fetched) by share of the points they earn; scoring from RuleSet.scoreFor supplied by this product’s rule engine; unpublished numbers from this product’s own assumption table, shared with the rule engine · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
xPts GW2–6
5 fixtures in the window.
Projection · basis: total xPts: over GW2-GW6: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures (derived from fixtures[]) · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Expected minutes
Start probability 17%, and 14% to reach the 60-minute appearance point.
Projection · basis: xMins for one fixture: history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Owned
Effective ownership would add captaincy share on top. FPL publishes no captaincy figure, so this is ownership alone and is labelled as such.
Official · basis: share of all FPL squads owning this player: bootstrap-static/elements[56].selected_by_percent · updated just now · confidence: high
What this projection could see
The player table shows no minutes against this player, but his record has 5 played seasons in it — FPL files a season under the club it was played at. Every screen in this product projects him from that record.
Strengths, measured
Each block names a quality, the figure that earned it, and where that sits among forwards with 450+ minutes on record.
There is nothing to describe him with. FPL has published no minutes for this player, so every per-90 rate on this screen would be a division by zero dressed up as a statistic. The projection above is the honest substitute, and it says so.
The schedule ahead
The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.
Set-piece duty
FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is real preseason information rather than a gap: the orders are published now and are one of the few things about 2026/27 that is already known.
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[56].penalties_order — FPL's published penalty order · updated just now · confidence: high
Availability
Knock - 75% chance of playing
Predicted lineups are not modelled here. Nothing in the public API publishes them, and a guessed eleven would be the one number on this page nobody could check.
Price
£5.5m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[56].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated just now · confidence: high
Since the season opened
+0.0m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[56].cost_change_start — movement from this season's opening price · updated just now · confidence: high
Owned
0.1%
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[56].selected_by_percent — share of all FPL squads · updated just now · confidence: high
His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of nearly every player right now. There is no price history to draw, and drawing a flat line would suggest there was something to see.
Effective ownership — what actually decides how much rank a return is worth — needs captaincy share, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.
2025/26
23 pts · 2 goals · 0 assists
2021/22
0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
2020/21
69 pts · 6 goals · 2 assists
2019/20
153 pts · 15 goals · 6 assists
2018/19
0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
2017/18
86 pts · 5 goals · 3 assists
2015/16
2 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
Points, by where they come from
P(start) 0.17 x [P(60+|start) 0.81 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.08 x 1pt
xG90 0.60 x fixture 0.93 x 0.16 of a match x 4pt
bonus90 0.74 x sqrt(fixture) 0.96 x 0.16 of a match
xA90 0.13 x fixture 0.93 x 0.16 of a match x 3pt
yellow90 0.03, red90 0.000 x 0.16 of a match
own goals, penalties missed and penalties saved, from history_past rates
P(>=12 defensive actions) 0.00 at 4.6/90 x P(start) 0.17 x 2pt
Projection · basis: xPts: GW2 H v ARS (FDR 4); fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.05) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason; minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9; rates from 755 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% FWD/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 279 players with a completed season, independent of which individual records this screen fetched) by share of the points they earn; scoring from RuleSet.scoreFor supplied by this product’s rule engine; unpublished numbers from this product’s own assumption table, shared with the rule engine · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The spread around it
Ceiling (90th)
3.0
Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW2 H v ARS (FDR 4); fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.05) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason; minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9; rates from 755 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% FWD/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 279 players with a completed season, independent of which individual records this screen fetched) by share of the points they earn; scoring from RuleSet.scoreFor supplied by this product’s rule engine; unpublished numbers from this product’s own assumption table, shared with the rule engine · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Floor (10th)
0.0
Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW2 H v ARS (FDR 4); fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.05) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason; minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9; rates from 755 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% FWD/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 279 players with a completed season, independent of which individual records this screen fetched) by share of the points they earn; scoring from RuleSet.scoreFor supplied by this product’s rule engine; unpublished numbers from this product’s own assumption table, shared with the rule engine · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 10+
1%
Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW2 H v ARS (FDR 4); fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.05) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason; minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9; rates from 755 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% FWD/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 279 players with a completed season, independent of which individual records this screen fetched) by share of the points they earn; scoring from RuleSet.scoreFor supplied by this product’s rule engine; unpublished numbers from this product’s own assumption table, shared with the rule engine · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 2 or fewer
88%
Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW2 H v ARS (FDR 4); fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.05) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason; minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9; rates from 755 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% FWD/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 279 players with a completed season, independent of which individual records this screen fetched) by share of the points they earn; scoring from RuleSet.scoreFor supplied by this product’s rule engine; unpublished numbers from this product’s own assumption table, shared with the rule engine · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The minutes model
Starts
17%
Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Reaches 60 minutes
14%
Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Off the bench
8%
Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Does not appear
76%
Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9 · updated just now · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 278min), 2020/21 (w0.25, 1031min), 2019/20 (w0.15, 2206min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 28.9
What this model does not include
Read before trusting the number
What FPL itself projects for GW2
FPL’s ep_next
1.3
Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[56].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated just now · confidence: high
Shown beside this product’s rather than instead of it. In preseason FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal and tops out at 4.0 for the best player in the game, so agreement in order is mild evidence and disagreement in level is expected.
The engines behind this page
Built from FPL’s own published season data — the player list, the fixture list and the points table — read together as one snapshot of the 2026/27 season and its 38 gameweeks. Points are counted with FPL’s published values rather than with a copy of them. A player's rate of scoring, assisting and keeping clean sheets is pulled toward a fixed population of 279 players with a completed season, independent of which individual records this screen fetched, so a short record is not read as confidently as a long one. Everything FPL does not publish is at this product’s own stated default.
One player in isolation is not a decision. Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits; put him beside the alternatives and the question becomes answerable.