0000
Theme
Dark theme
OverNil
  • Home
  • Team
  • Decisions
    • Transfers
    • Captain
    • Bench
    • Chips
    • Planner
    • Route
    • Decision rooms
    • Deadline
  • Live
    • Rivals
    • Win chances
  • Explore
    • Players
    • Projections
    • Line-ups
    • Fixtures
    • Stats
    • Scorers
    • Gameweek
    • Set and forget
    • Rising players
    • News
    • Prices
    • Price changes
MenuHow it works
  • Home
  • Team
  • Decisions
  • Live
  • Explore
GW8000d 00h1d 01hto deadline
Connect team
MenuAccount
PlayersProjectionsLine-upsFixturesStatsScorersGameweekSet and forgetRising playersNewsPricesPrice changes
0000
AccountPlansHomeTerms of usePrivacyDisclaimer

A paid plan is changed or cancelled from your account.

Designed and built byStudio Javanainen

Explore · Players

Barkley

‹ All players

Midfielder for Aston Villa, £5.0m.

AVLMID

MidfielderAston Villa

Ross Barkley

£5.0mFit100% chance of playing

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

1.2

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

6.0

5 fixtures in GW8–12.

xMins

25

23% to start, 18% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

0.2%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

1.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9. Rates from 1041 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 81% own record / 19% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 14 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among midfielders with 450+ minutes on record.

Goal threat

0.14 xG per 90

Not ranked: 330 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Chance creation

0.05 xA per 90

Not ranked: 330 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Attacking involvement

0.19 xGI per 90

Not ranked: 330 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Defensive work

9.3 defensive actions per 90

Not ranked: 330 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Starting security

11% of team games started

Not ranked: 330 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

22.1 BPS per 90

Not ranked: 330 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

2.4 points per £m

Not ranked: 330 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • MCI H4
  • FUL H2
  • MUN A4
  • SUN H3
  • IPS A2
  1. GW8vs MCI (difficulty 4 of 5)1.2
  2. GW9vs FUL (difficulty 2 of 5)1.3
  3. GW10at MUN (difficulty 4 of 5)1.1
  4. GW11vs SUN (difficulty 3 of 5)1.2
  5. GW12at IPS (difficulty 2 of 5)1.2

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW8-GW12: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

  • Corners and indirect4th in line

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[46].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

100%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£5.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[46].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[46].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: high

Owned

0.2%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[46].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: high

His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of most players right now.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 16 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    56 pts · 3 goals · 2 assists

    844 min
    Starts
    7
    xG
    1.58
    xA
    1.26
    xGC
    13.20
    DefCon
    74
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    221

  2. 2024/25

    44 pts · 3 goals · 1 assists

    567 min
    Starts
    3
    xG
    1.79
    xA
    0.43
    xGC
    6.32
    DefCon
    75
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    166

  3. 2023/24

    101 pts · 5 goals · 5 assists

    2616 min
    Starts
    30
    xG
    3.91
    xA
    2.73
    xGC
    60.84
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    498

  4. 2022/23

    0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    0 min
    Starts
    0
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.00
    xGC
    0.00
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    0

  5. 2021/22

    14 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    174 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    1
    BPS
    43

  6. 2020/21

    76 pts · 3 goals · 2 assists

    1566 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    286

  7. 2019/20

    61 pts · 1 goals · 5 assists

    1095 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    208

  8. 2018/19

    79 pts · 3 goals · 5 assists

    1231 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    300

  9. 2017/18

    3 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    129 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    11

  10. 2016/17

    144 pts · 5 goals · 11 assists

    2900 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    11
    BPS
    534

  11. 2015/16

    158 pts · 8 goals · 9 assists

    3076 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    14
    BPS
    652

  12. 2014/15

    75 pts · 2 goals · 3 assists

    1961 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    356

  13. 2013/14

    112 pts · 6 goals · 4 assists

    2288 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    12
    BPS
    116

  14. 2012/13

    7 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    209 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    0

  15. 2011/12

    7 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    216 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    0

  16. 2010/11

    0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    0 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    0
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+0.77

    P(start) 0.23 x [P(60+|start) 0.79 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.35 x 1pt

  • goals+0.20

    xG90 0.16 x fixture 0.93 x 0.27 of a match x 5pt

  • bonus+0.10

    bonus90 0.37 x sqrt(fixture) 0.96 x 0.27 of a match

  • assists+0.08

    xA90 0.11 x fixture 0.93 x 0.27 of a match x 3pt

  • cards-0.06

    yellow90 0.20, red90 0.003 x 0.27 of a match

  • cleanSheet+0.05

    P(60+) 0.18 x P(0 conceded) 0.25 (xGC90 1.61 x fixture 1.08) x 1pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.04

    P(>=12 defensive actions) 0.08 at 9.3/90 x P(start) 0.23 x 2pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9. Rates from 1041 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 81% own record / 19% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

3.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW8 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9. Rates from 1041 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 81% own record / 19% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW8 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9. Rates from 1041 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 81% own record / 19% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

0%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW8 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9. Rates from 1041 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 81% own record / 19% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

87%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW8 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9. Rates from 1041 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 81% own record / 19% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

23%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9 · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

18%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9 · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

35%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9 · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

42%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9 · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 844min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 567min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2616min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 32.9

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Age 32.9: minutes discounted 7%.
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW8

FPL’s ep_next

1.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[46].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 17 sec ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Barkley to my squadCompare him with others