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Explore · Players

Burn

‹ All players

Defender for Newcastle, £4.8m.

NEWDEF

DefenderNewcastle

Dan Burn

£4.8mFit100% chance of playing

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

2.4

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

12.0

5 fixtures in GW8–12.

xMins

59

68% to start, 63% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

0.7%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

1.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 A v CRY (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5. Rates from 2558 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 8 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

Goal threat

0.00 xG per 90

Not ranked: 2 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Chance creation

0.90 xA per 90

Not ranked: 2 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Attacking involvement

0.90 xGI per 90

Not ranked: 2 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Defensive work

45.0 defensive actions per 90

Not ranked: 2 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Defensive solidity

3.60 xGC per 90

Not ranked: 2 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Starting security

0% of team games started

Not ranked: 2 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

360.0 BPS per 90

Not ranked: 2 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

0.4 points per £m

Not ranked: 2 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • CRY A3
  • EVE H3
  • FUL A3
  • ARS H4
  • BHA A4
  1. GW8at CRY (difficulty 3 of 5)2.4
  2. GW9vs EVE (difficulty 3 of 5)2.6
  3. GW10at FUL (difficulty 3 of 5)2.4
  4. GW11vs ARS (difficulty 4 of 5)2.4
  5. GW12at BHA (difficulty 4 of 5)2.2

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW8-GW12: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated just now · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[448].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated just now · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

100%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£4.8m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[448].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated just now · confidence: high

Since the season opened

-0.2m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[448].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated just now · confidence: high

Owned

0.7%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[448].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated just now · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 9 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    93 pts · 1 goals · 3 assists

    2195 min
    Starts
    25
    xG
    1.08
    xA
    0.36
    xGC
    30.15
    DefCon
    225
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    286

  2. 2024/25

    115 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists

    3330 min
    Starts
    37
    xG
    1.97
    xA
    1.09
    xGC
    45.22
    DefCon
    286
    Bonus
    9
    BPS
    476

  3. 2023/24

    97 pts · 2 goals · 2 assists

    2725 min
    Starts
    32
    xG
    3.35
    xA
    1.12
    xGC
    46.22
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    493

  4. 2022/23

    129 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    3109 min
    Starts
    35
    xG
    2.12
    xA
    1.28
    xGC
    36.33
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    6
    BPS
    584

  5. 2021/22

    92 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists

    2461 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    6
    BPS
    454

  6. 2020/21

    64 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    2057 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    1
    BPS
    330

  7. 2019/20

    86 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    2879 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    480

  8. 2018/19

    0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    0 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    0

  9. 2013/14

    8 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    607 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    25
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.45

    P(start) 0.68 x [P(60+|start) 0.93 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.14 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.70

    P(60+) 0.63 x P(0 conceded) 0.28 (xGC90 1.30 x fixture 1.08) x 4pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.36

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.27 at 8.6/90 x P(start) 0.68 x 2pt

  • goalsConceded-0.29

    P(start) 0.68 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.29 over 83 mins + P(cameo) 0.14 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.34 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.30 x fixture 1.08)

  • cards-0.23

    yellow90 0.29, red90 0.019 x 0.66 of a match

  • goals+0.22

    xG90 0.06 x fixture 0.93 x 0.66 of a match x 6pt

  • bonus+0.13

    bonus90 0.21 x sqrt(fixture) 0.96 x 0.66 of a match

  • assists+0.05

    xA90 0.03 x fixture 0.93 x 0.66 of a match x 3pt

  • misc-0.02

    own goals, penalties missed and penalties saved, from history_past rates

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 A v CRY (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5. Rates from 2558 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

6.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW8 A v CRY (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5. Rates from 2558 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW8 A v CRY (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5. Rates from 2558 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

1%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW8 A v CRY (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5. Rates from 2558 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

67%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW8 A v CRY (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5. Rates from 2558 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

68%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

63%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

14%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

18%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2195min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2725min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 34.5

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Age 34.5: minutes discounted 11%.
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW8

FPL’s ep_next

1.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[448].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated just now · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Burn to my squadCompare him with others