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Explore · Players

Shaw

‹ All players

Defender for Man Utd, £4.3m.

MUNDEF

DefenderMan Utd

Luke Shaw

£4.3mFit100% chance of playing

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

2.2

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

9.7

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

53

65% to start, 59% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

7.5%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

1.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2. Rates from 2163 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 14 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

Goal threat

0.01 xG per 90

Not ranked: 335 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Chance creation

0.16 xA per 90

Not ranked: 335 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Attacking involvement

0.16 xGI per 90

Not ranked: 335 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Defensive work

6.2 defensive actions per 90

Not ranked: 335 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Defensive solidity

1.24 xGC per 90

Not ranked: 335 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Starting security

11% of team games started

Not ranked: 335 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

14.5 BPS per 90

Not ranked: 335 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

2.1 points per £m

Not ranked: 335 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • TOT H2
  • LEE A3
  • BOU H3
  • CHE A4
  • AVL H3
  1. GW6vs TOT (difficulty 2 of 5)2.2
  2. GW7at LEE (difficulty 3 of 5)1.8
  3. GW8vs BOU (difficulty 3 of 5)2.0
  4. GW9at CHE (difficulty 4 of 5)1.6
  5. GW10vs AVL (difficulty 3 of 5)2.0

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 4 min ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

  • Corners and indirectthird in line

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[423].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 4 min ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

100%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£4.3m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[423].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 4 min ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

-0.2m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[423].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 4 min ago · confidence: high

Owned

7.5%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[423].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 4 min ago · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 14 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    113 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists

    3220 min
    Starts
    38
    xG
    0.72
    xA
    1.98
    xGC
    44.90
    DefCon
    224
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    449

  2. 2024/25

    5 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    346 min
    Starts
    4
    xG
    0.03
    xA
    0.77
    xGC
    3.81
    DefCon
    14
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    38

  3. 2023/24

    31 pts · 0 goals · 1 assists

    960 min
    Starts
    12
    xG
    0.05
    xA
    0.89
    xGC
    20.17
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    195

  4. 2022/23

    124 pts · 1 goals · 4 assists

    2552 min
    Starts
    30
    xG
    1.09
    xA
    2.90
    xGC
    37.85
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    20
    BPS
    626

  5. 2021/22

    46 pts · 0 goals · 3 assists

    1600 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    276

  6. 2020/21

    124 pts · 1 goals · 5 assists

    2653 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    22
    BPS
    640

  7. 2019/20

    67 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    1730 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    2
    BPS
    381

  8. 2018/19

    91 pts · 1 goals · 5 assists

    2591 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    11
    BPS
    489

  9. 2017/18

    48 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    787 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    216

  10. 2016/17

    45 pts · 0 goals · 3 assists

    688 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    202

  11. 2015/16

    27 pts · 0 goals · 1 assists

    450 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    135

  12. 2014/15

    34 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    1121 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    217

  13. 2013/14

    123 pts · 0 goals · 2 assists

    2990 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    10
    BPS
    173

  14. 2012/13

    66 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    1949 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    2
    BPS
    0
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.27

    P(start) 0.65 x [P(60+|start) 0.90 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.03 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.94

    P(60+) 0.59 x P(0 conceded) 0.40 (xGC90 1.32 x fixture 0.78) x 4pt

  • goalsConceded-0.16

    P(start) 0.65 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.91 over 79 mins + P(cameo) 0.03 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.25 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.32 x fixture 0.78)

  • cards-0.15

    yellow90 0.26, red90 0.001 x 0.58 of a match

  • assists+0.14

    xA90 0.06 x fixture 1.23 x 0.58 of a match x 3pt

  • goals+0.09

    xG90 0.02 x fixture 1.23 x 0.58 of a match x 6pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.05

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.04 at 5.9/90 x P(start) 0.65 x 2pt

  • bonus+0.05

    bonus90 0.08 x sqrt(fixture) 1.11 x 0.58 of a match

  • misc-0.01

    own goals, penalties missed and penalties saved, from history_past rates

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2. Rates from 2163 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

6.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2. Rates from 2163 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2. Rates from 2163 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

1%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2. Rates from 2163 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

70%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2. Rates from 2163 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/<=4.5m cohort (n=80, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

65%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2 · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

59%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2 · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

3%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2 · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

31%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2 · updated 4 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3220min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 346min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 960min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 31.2

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Age 31.2: minutes discounted 3%.
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

1.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[423].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 4 min ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Shaw to my squadCompare him with others