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Explore · Players

Maguire

‹ All players

Defender for Man Utd, £4.8m.

MUNDEF

DefenderMan Utd

Harry Maguire

£4.8mFit

Modest goal threat, 0.04 xG per 90, top 50% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27.

xPts next

2.0

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

8.9

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

40

45% to start, 39% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

8.4%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

1.5

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6. Rates from 1675 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 11 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

Modest goal threat

0.04 xG per 90

Top 50% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

High chance creation

0.09 xA per 90

Top 16% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Useful attacking involvement

0.13 xGI per 90

Top 34% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Low defensive work

6.2 defensive actions per 90

19 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Useful defensive solidity

1.36 xGC per 90

Top 26% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Modest starting security

13% of team games started

Top 50% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Modest bonus pull

10.0 BPS per 90

16 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Low value

2.1 points per £m

23 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • TOT H2
  • LEE A3
  • BOU H3
  • CHE A4
  • AVL H3
  1. GW6vs TOT (difficulty 2 of 5)2.0
  2. GW7at LEE (difficulty 3 of 5)1.7
  3. GW8vs BOU (difficulty 3 of 5)1.8
  4. GW9at CHE (difficulty 4 of 5)1.5
  5. GW10vs AVL (difficulty 3 of 5)1.8

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[418].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£4.8m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[418].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

-0.2m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[418].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high

Owned

8.4%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[418].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 11 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    90 pts · 1 goals · 2 assists

    1649 min
    Starts
    19
    xG
    1.12
    xA
    0.50
    xGC
    22.95
    DefCon
    151
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    315

  2. 2024/25

    48 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    1751 min
    Starts
    19
    xG
    1.82
    xA
    0.25
    xGC
    26.83
    DefCon
    159
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    217

  3. 2023/24

    73 pts · 2 goals · 4 assists

    1650 min
    Starts
    18
    xG
    1.94
    xA
    0.97
    xGC
    36.68
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    6
    BPS
    351

  4. 2022/23

    39 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    762 min
    Starts
    8
    xG
    0.34
    xA
    0.04
    xGC
    10.79
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    2
    BPS
    201

  5. 2021/22

    69 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    2513 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    451

  6. 2020/21

    124 pts · 2 goals · 2 assists

    3047 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    8
    BPS
    632

  7. 2019/20

    123 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    3420 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    681

  8. 2018/19

    92 pts · 3 goals · 1 assists

    2596 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    10
    BPS
    533

  9. 2017/18

    117 pts · 2 goals · 4 assists

    3420 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    10
    BPS
    716

  10. 2016/17

    71 pts · 2 goals · 3 assists

    2307 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    483

  11. 2014/15

    1 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    94 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    20
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.09

    P(start) 0.45 x [P(60+|start) 0.87 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.24 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.61

    P(60+) 0.39 x P(0 conceded) 0.39 (xGC90 1.40 x fixture 0.78) x 4pt

  • goals+0.25

    xG90 0.08 x fixture 1.23 x 0.45 of a match x 6pt

  • cards-0.13

    yellow90 0.21, red90 0.027 x 0.45 of a match

  • defensiveContribution+0.12

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.14 at 7.8/90 x P(start) 0.45 x 2pt

  • goalsConceded-0.12

    P(start) 0.45 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.93 over 77 mins + P(cameo) 0.24 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.27 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.40 x fixture 0.78)

  • bonus+0.12

    bonus90 0.25 x sqrt(fixture) 1.11 x 0.45 of a match

  • assists+0.05

    xA90 0.03 x fixture 1.23 x 0.45 of a match x 3pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6. Rates from 1675 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

6.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6. Rates from 1675 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6. Rates from 1675 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

2%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6. Rates from 1675 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

76%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v TOT (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6. Rates from 1675 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

45%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6 · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

39%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6 · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

24%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6 · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

30%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6 · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1649min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1751min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1650min); status=a (available); age 33.6

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Age 33.6: minutes discounted 9%.
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

1.5

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[418].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Maguire to my squadCompare him with others