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Explore · Players

Gabriel

‹ All players

Defender for Arsenal, £8.0m.

ARSDEF

DefenderArsenal

Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães

£8.0mFit

High goal threat, 0.10 xG per 90, top 18% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27.

xPts next

4.5

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

21.8

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

71

79% to start, 75% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

22.7%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

5.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8. Rates from 2697 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF cohort (n=148, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 6 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

High goal threat

0.10 xG per 90

Top 18% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Modest chance creation

0.04 xA per 90

Top 46% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Useful attacking involvement

0.14 xGI per 90

Top 30% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Modest defensive work

8.2 defensive actions per 90

17 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Elite defensive solidity

0.81 xGC per 90

Top 2% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Modest starting security

13% of team games started

Top 50% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Useful bonus pull

18.0 BPS per 90

Top 30% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Modest value

3.1 points per £m

Top 50% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • LEE H3
  • NFO A3
  • EVE H3
  • LIV A4
  • HUL H2
  1. GW6vs LEE (difficulty 3 of 5)4.5
  2. GW7at NFO (difficulty 3 of 5)4.2
  3. GW8vs EVE (difficulty 3 of 5)4.5
  4. GW9at LIV (difficulty 4 of 5)3.9
  5. GW10vs HUL (difficulty 2 of 5)4.8

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[4].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£8.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[4].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[4].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Owned

22.7%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[4].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of most players right now.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 6 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    209 pts · 3 goals · 5 assists

    2750 min
    Starts
    30
    xG
    2.94
    xA
    1.75
    xGC
    22.01
    DefCon
    277
    Bonus
    30
    BPS
    724

  2. 2024/25

    117 pts · 3 goals · 2 assists

    2363 min
    Starts
    28
    xG
    2.70
    xA
    1.21
    xGC
    23.09
    DefCon
    159
    Bonus
    9
    BPS
    459

  3. 2023/24

    149 pts · 3 goals · 1 assists

    3042 min
    Starts
    34
    xG
    4.48
    xA
    0.65
    xGC
    26.18
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    8
    BPS
    676

  4. 2022/23

    146 pts · 3 goals · 0 assists

    3409 min
    Starts
    38
    xG
    5.04
    xA
    0.66
    xGC
    41.84
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    15
    BPS
    723

  5. 2021/22

    146 pts · 5 goals · 0 assists

    3063 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    16
    BPS
    682

  6. 2020/21

    78 pts · 2 goals · 0 assists

    1996 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    7
    BPS
    385
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.71

    P(start) 0.79 x [P(60+|start) 0.95 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.17 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+1.45

    P(60+) 0.75 x P(0 conceded) 0.48 (xGC90 0.83 x fixture 0.93) x 4pt

  • bonus+0.55

    bonus90 0.67 x sqrt(fixture) 1.04 x 0.79 of a match

  • goals+0.51

    xG90 0.10 x fixture 1.08 x 0.79 of a match x 6pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.40

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.25 at 8.2/90 x P(start) 0.79 x 2pt

  • goalsConceded-0.14

    P(start) 0.79 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.73 over 85 mins + P(cameo) 0.17 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.19 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 0.83 x fixture 0.93)

  • assists+0.13

    xA90 0.05 x fixture 1.08 x 0.79 of a match x 3pt

  • cards-0.11

    yellow90 0.14, red90 0.000 x 0.79 of a match

  • misc-0.01

    own goals, penalties missed and penalties saved, from history_past rates

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8. Rates from 2697 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF cohort (n=148, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

9.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8. Rates from 2697 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF cohort (n=148, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

1.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8. Rates from 2697 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF cohort (n=148, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

7%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8. Rates from 2697 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF cohort (n=148, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

40%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8. Rates from 2697 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF cohort (n=148, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

79%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

75%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

17%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

4%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2750min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2363min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3042min); status=a (available); age 28.8

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

5.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[4].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Gabriel to my squadCompare him with others