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Designed and built byStudio Javanainen

Explore · Players

Matheus N.

‹ All players

Defender for Man City, £5.9m.

MCIDEF

DefenderMan City

Matheus Nunes

£5.9mFit100% chance of playing

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

2.3

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

13.2

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

58

67% to start, 61% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

1.0%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

5.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1. Rates from 2259 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 88% own record / 12% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 4 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

Goal threat

0.00 xG per 90

Not ranked: 213 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Chance creation

0.03 xA per 90

Not ranked: 213 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Attacking involvement

0.03 xGI per 90

Not ranked: 213 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Defensive work

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • LIV A4
  • IPS H2
  • AVL A3
His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

  • Penalties4th in line

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[389].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated just now · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£5.9m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[389].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated just now · confidence: high

Since the season opened

-0.1m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[389].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated just now · confidence: high

Owned

1.0%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[389].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated just now · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 4 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    154 pts · 1 goals · 8 assists

    2861 min
    Starts
    32
    xG
    0.34
    xA
    2.23
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.47

    P(start) 0.67 x [P(60+|start) 0.92 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.19 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.64

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Matheus N. to my squadCompare him with others

8.9 defensive actions per 90

Not ranked: 213 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Defensive solidity

1.97 xGC per 90

Not ranked: 213 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Starting security

5% of team games started

Not ranked: 213 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

16.1 BPS per 90

Not ranked: 213 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

1.9 points per £m

Not ranked: 213 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

BHA H
3
  • NFO A3
    1. GW6at LIV (difficulty 4 of 5)2.3
    2. GW7vs IPS (difficulty 2 of 5)3.0
    3. GW8at AVL (difficulty 3 of 5)2.5
    4. GW9vs BHA (difficulty 3 of 5)2.8
    5. GW10at NFO (difficulty 3 of 5)2.5

    Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated just now · confidence: high

    100%
    FPL's own figure

    Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

    Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

    xGC
    34.89
    DefCon
    195
    Bonus
    16
    BPS
    676

  • 2024/25

    81 pts · 1 goals · 7 assists

    1670 min
    Starts
    19
    xG
    1.11
    xA
    3.32
    xGC
    24.87
    DefCon
    84
    Bonus
    6
    BPS
    373

  • 2023/24

    32 pts · 0 goals · 2 assists

    831 min
    Starts
    9
    xG
    0.89
    xA
    1.71
    xGC
    10.39
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    1
    BPS
    118

  • 2022/23

    80 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists

    2467 min
    Starts
    30
    xG
    2.41
    xA
    1.38
    xGC
    41.19
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    338

    • P(60+) 0.61 x P(0 conceded) 0.26 (xGC90 1.19 x fixture 1.25) x 4pt

  • goalsConceded-0.30

    P(start) 0.67 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.34 over 81 mins + P(cameo) 0.19 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.36 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.19 x fixture 1.25)

  • bonus+0.27

    bonus90 0.46 x sqrt(fixture) 0.89 x 0.65 of a match

  • assists+0.15

    xA90 0.09 x fixture 0.80 x 0.65 of a match x 3pt

  • cards-0.11

    yellow90 0.15, red90 0.005 x 0.65 of a match

  • goals+0.10

    xG90 0.03 x fixture 0.80 x 0.65 of a match x 6pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.09

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.07 at 6.4/90 x P(start) 0.67 x 2pt

    • Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1. Rates from 2259 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 88% own record / 12% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    The spread around it

    Ceiling (90th)

    6.0

    Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1. Rates from 2259 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 88% own record / 12% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    Floor (10th)

    0.0

    Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1. Rates from 2259 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 88% own record / 12% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    Chance of 10+

    1%

    Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1. Rates from 2259 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 88% own record / 12% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    Chance of 2 or fewer

    71%

    Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1. Rates from 2259 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 88% own record / 12% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    The minutes model

    Starts

    67%

    Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1 · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    Reaches 60 minutes

    61%

    Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1 · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    Off the bench

    19%

    Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1 · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    Does not appear

    15%

    Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1 · updated just now · confidence: medium

    A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

    history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2861min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1670min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 831min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 28.1

    What this model does not include

    • manager rotation policy
    • European/cup fixture congestion
    • press conference quotes
    • predicted lineups
    • training-ground reports

    Read before trusting the number

    • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
    • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
    • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

    What FPL itself projects for GW6

    FPL’s ep_next

    5.0

    Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[389].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated just now · confidence: high

    Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

    What this is built from

    Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.