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Explore · Players

O'Reilly

‹ All players

Defender for Man City, £6.3m.

MCIDEF

DefenderMan City

Nico O'Reilly

£6.3mDoubt75% chance of playing

FPL saysUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

1.8

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

10.6

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

39

44% to start, 40% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

10.5%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

1.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6. Rates from 2020 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 2 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

Goal threat

0.48 xG per 90

Not ranked: 163 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Chance creation

0.24 xA per 90

Not ranked: 163 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Attacking involvement

0.72 xGI per 90

Not ranked: 163 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Defensive work

2.8 defensive actions per 90

Not ranked: 163 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Defensive solidity

1.16 xGC per 90

Not ranked: 163 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Starting security

5% of team games started

Not ranked: 163 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

12.1 BPS per 90

Not ranked: 163 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

1.0 points per £m

Not ranked: 163 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • LIV A4
  • IPS H2
  • AVL A3
  • BHA H3
  • NFO A3
  1. GW6at LIV (difficulty 4 of 5)1.8
  2. GW7vs IPS (difficulty 2 of 5)2.5
  3. GW8at AVL (difficulty 3 of 5)2.0
  4. GW9vs BHA (difficulty 3 of 5)2.3
  5. GW10at NFO (difficulty 3 of 5)2.0

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[387].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high

Availability

Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing

75%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£6.3m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[387].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

-0.2m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[387].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high

Owned

10.5%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[387].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 3 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    160 pts · 5 goals · 4 assists

    2643 min
    Starts
    29
    xG
    6.12
    xA
    2.67
    xGC
    34.97
    DefCon
    172
    Bonus
    10
    BPS
    567

  2. 2024/25

    31 pts · 2 goals · 0 assists

    525 min
    Starts
    6
    xG
    1.28
    xA
    0.68
    xGC
    5.49
    DefCon
    24
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    118

  3. 2022/23

    0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    0 min
    Starts
    0
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.00
    xGC
    0.00
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    0
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+0.99

    P(start) 0.44 x [P(60+|start) 0.91 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.15 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.41

    P(60+) 0.40 x P(0 conceded) 0.26 (xGC90 1.22 x fixture 1.25) x 4pt

  • goals+0.40

    xG90 0.19 x fixture 0.80 x 0.43 of a match x 6pt

  • goalsConceded-0.20

    P(start) 0.44 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.36 over 80 mins + P(cameo) 0.15 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.37 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.22 x fixture 1.25)

  • bonus+0.15

    bonus90 0.39 x sqrt(fixture) 0.89 x 0.43 of a match

  • assists+0.09

    xA90 0.09 x fixture 0.80 x 0.43 of a match x 3pt

  • cards-0.06

    yellow90 0.15, red90 0.000 x 0.43 of a match

  • defensiveContribution+0.05

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.06 at 6.3/90 x P(start) 0.44 x 2pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6. Rates from 2020 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

6.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6. Rates from 2020 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6. Rates from 2020 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

2%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6. Rates from 2020 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

79%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 A v LIV (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6. Rates from 2020 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 87% own record / 13% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

44%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6 · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

40%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6 · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

15%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6 · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

41%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6 · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 2643min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 525min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 21.6

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Availability: chance_of_playing_next_round=75%.
  • FPL news: Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

0.8

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[387].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add O'Reilly to my squadCompare him with others