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Explore · Players

Virgil

‹ All players

Defender for Liverpool, £6.5m.

LIVDEF

DefenderLiverpool

Virgil van Dijk

£6.5mFit

Modest goal threat, 0.05 xG per 90, top 42% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27.

xPts next

3.6

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

18.1

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

77

86% to start, 83% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

16.2%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

8.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3. Rates from 3361 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 11 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

Modest goal threat

0.05 xG per 90

Top 42% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Low chance creation

0.02 xA per 90

18 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Modest attacking involvement

0.07 xGI per 90

15 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Useful defensive work

9.6 defensive actions per 90

Top 40% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

High defensive solidity

1.22 xGC per 90

Top 10% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Modest starting security

13% of team games started

Top 50% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Useful bonus pull

19.2 BPS per 90

Top 22% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Useful value

3.8 points per £m

Top 38% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • MCI H4
  • BRE A3
  • BHA H3
  • ARS H4
  • CRY A3
  1. GW6vs MCI (difficulty 4 of 5)3.6
  2. GW7at BRE (difficulty 3 of 5)3.5
  3. GW8vs BHA (difficulty 3 of 5)3.9
  4. GW9vs ARS (difficulty 4 of 5)3.6
  5. GW10at CRY (difficulty 3 of 5)3.5

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[356].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£6.5m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[356].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[356].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: high

Owned

16.2%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[356].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: high

His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of most players right now.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 11 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    175 pts · 6 goals · 1 assists

    3420 min
    Starts
    38
    xG
    3.77
    xA
    1.44
    xGC
    47.63
    DefCon
    352
    Bonus
    10
    BPS
    593

  2. 2024/25

    143 pts · 3 goals · 1 assists

    3330 min
    Starts
    37
    xG
    2.22
    xA
    0.98
    xGC
    36.13
    DefCon
    300
    Bonus
    8
    BPS
    631

  3. 2023/24

    117 pts · 2 goals · 2 assists

    3177 min
    Starts
    36
    xG
    2.88
    xA
    1.04
    xGC
    45.72
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    8
    BPS
    662

  4. 2022/23

    127 pts · 3 goals · 1 assists

    2835 min
    Starts
    32
    xG
    2.50
    xA
    1.09
    xGC
    41.17
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    13
    BPS
    636

  5. 2021/22

    183 pts · 3 goals · 3 assists

    3060 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    13
    BPS
    803

  6. 2020/21

    15 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    370 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    1
    BPS
    73

  7. 2019/20

    178 pts · 5 goals · 2 assists

    3420 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    14
    BPS
    804

  8. 2018/19

    208 pts · 4 goals · 4 assists

    3384 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    22
    BPS
    932

  9. 2017/18

    78 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    2253 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    481

  10. 2016/17

    75 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    1852 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    14
    BPS
    435

  11. 2015/16

    130 pts · 3 goals · 0 assists

    3060 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    16
    BPS
    713
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.70

    P(start) 0.86 x [P(60+|start) 0.97 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.01 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.90

    P(60+) 0.83 x P(0 conceded) 0.27 (xGC90 1.22 x fixture 1.08) x 4pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.75

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.44 at 9.3/90 x P(start) 0.86 x 2pt

  • goals+0.42

    xG90 0.09 x fixture 0.93 x 0.85 of a match x 6pt

  • goalsConceded-0.36

    P(start) 0.86 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.30 over 89 mins + P(cameo) 0.01 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.32 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.22 x fixture 1.08)

  • bonus+0.23

    bonus90 0.27 x sqrt(fixture) 0.96 x 0.85 of a match

  • cards-0.10

    yellow90 0.11, red90 0.004 x 0.85 of a match

  • assists+0.09

    xA90 0.04 x fixture 0.93 x 0.85 of a match x 3pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3. Rates from 3361 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

8.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3. Rates from 3361 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3. Rates from 3361 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

4%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3. Rates from 3361 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

46%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v MCI (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3. Rates from 3361 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

86%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3 · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

83%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3 · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

1%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3 · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

13%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3 · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3420min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3330min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3177min); status=a (available); age 35.3

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Age 35.3: minutes discounted 13%.
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

8.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[356].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 32 sec ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

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