0000
Theme
Dark theme
OverNil
  • Home
  • Team
  • Decisions
    • Transfers
    • Captain
    • Bench
    • Chips
    • Planner
    • Route
    • Decision rooms
    • Deadline
  • Live
    • Rivals
    • Win chances
  • Explore
    • Players
    • Projections
    • Line-ups
    • Fixtures
    • Stats
    • Scorers
    • Gameweek
    • Set and forget
    • Rising players
    • News
    • Prices
    • Price changes
MenuHow it works
  • Home
  • Team
  • Decisions
  • Live
  • Explore
GW8000d 00h1d 02hto deadline
Connect team
MenuAccount
PlayersProjectionsLine-upsFixturesStatsScorersGameweekSet and forgetRising playersNewsPricesPrice changes
0000
AccountPlansHomeTerms of usePrivacyDisclaimer

A paid plan is changed or cancelled from your account.

Designed and built byStudio Javanainen

Explore · Players

Muharemović

‹ All players

Defender for Leeds, £5.0m.

LEEDEF

DefenderLeeds

Tarik Muharemović

£5.0mFit

Useful goal threat, 0.08 xG per 90, top 33% of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27.

xPts next

0.4

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

1.9

5 fixtures in GW8–12.

xMins

9

11% to start, 6% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

5.0%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

3.5

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 A v SUN (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available). Rates from the DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort mean (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season), no record of his own. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

FPL holds no completed season for this player, no minutes, no expected goals, nothing. The projection below is a price-and-position cohort prior, a guess with a method.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

Useful goal threat

0.08 xG per 90

Top 33% of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Modest chance creation

0.03 xA per 90

40 of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Modest attacking involvement

0.11 xGI per 90

Top 48% of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

High defensive work

10.4 defensive actions per 90

Top 13% of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Useful defensive solidity

1.39 xGC per 90

Top 31% of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Useful starting security

18% of team games started

Top 31% of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Useful bonus pull

18.0 BPS per 90

Top 20% of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

High value

6.8 points per £m

Top 19% of 62 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • SUN A3
  • BOU A3
  • TOT H2
  • CHE A4
  • COV H2
  1. GW8at SUN (difficulty 3 of 5)0.4
  2. GW9at BOU (difficulty 3 of 5)0.4
  3. GW10vs TOT (difficulty 2 of 5)0.4
  4. GW11at CHE (difficulty 4 of 5)0.3
  5. GW12vs COV (difficulty 2 of 5)0.4

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW8-GW12: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[334].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£5.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[334].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[334].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Owned

5.0%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[334].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of most players right now.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record.OpenClose▸

FPL holds no completed season for this player, so the projection above carries low confidence.

Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+0.25

    P(start) 0.11 x [P(60+|start) 0.54 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.09 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.08

    P(60+) 0.06 x P(0 conceded) 0.34 (xGC90 1.43 x fixture 1.08) x 4pt

  • goals+0.04

    xG90 0.07 x fixture 0.93 x 0.10 of a match x 6pt

  • goalsConceded-0.04

    P(start) 0.11 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.08 over 63 mins + P(cameo) 0.09 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.38 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.43 x fixture 1.08)

  • cards-0.02

    yellow90 0.19, red90 0.008 x 0.10 of a match

  • bonus+0.02

    bonus90 0.20 x sqrt(fixture) 0.96 x 0.10 of a match

  • assists+0.02

    xA90 0.06 x fixture 0.93 x 0.10 of a match x 3pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.01

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.06 at 8.1/90 x P(start) 0.11 x 2pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 A v SUN (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available). Rates from the DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort mean (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season), no record of his own. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

1.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW8 A v SUN (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available). Rates from the DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort mean (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season), no record of his own. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW8 A v SUN (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available). Rates from the DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort mean (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season), no record of his own. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

0%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW8 A v SUN (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available). Rates from the DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort mean (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season), no record of his own. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

96%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW8 A v SUN (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available). Rates from the DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort mean (n=63, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season), no record of his own. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

11%

Projection · basis: P(start): no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available) · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

6%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available) · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

9%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available) · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

80%

Projection · basis: P(unused): no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available) · updated 1 min ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

no FPL history - position + price prior (DEF/4.6-5.5m, n=63 players with history); status=a (available)

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • No FPL history: this is a cohort prior, not an observation.
  • No per-90 rates of their own: every rate is the DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort mean (n=63).
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW8

FPL’s ep_next

3.5

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[334].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Muharemović to my squadCompare him with others