0000
Explore · Players
Midfielder for Hull City, £4.4m.
MidfielderHull City
Kieran Dowell
Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.
xPts next
0.6
His projected score in the next gameweek.
xPts window
3.1
5 fixtures in GW6–10.
xMins
17
22% to start, 20% to reach 60 minutes.
Ownership
0.3%
Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.
Form
0.0
Zero until a gameweek is played.
Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0. Rates from 660 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 73% own record / 27% MID/<=4.5m cohort (n=8, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
What this projection could see
The player table shows no minutes for him, but his record has 2 played seasons in it. FPL files a season under the club it was played at.
Ranked among midfielders with 450+ minutes on record.
No minutes are published for him, so every per-90 rate would be a division by zero dressed up as a statistic. The projection above uses his position and price instead.
The schedule ahead
The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.
Set-piece duty
FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[288].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high
Availability
FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.
No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.
Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.
Price
£4.4m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[288].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high
Since the season opened
-0.1m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[288].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high
Owned
0.3%
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[288].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high
Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.
Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.
2021/22
41 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists
2018/19
0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
2015/16
4 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
Points, by where they come from
P(start) 0.22 x [P(60+|start) 0.90 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.00 x 1pt
xG90 0.10 x fixture 1.08 x 0.19 of a match x 5pt
xA90 0.10 x fixture 1.08 x 0.19 of a match x 3pt
P(60+) 0.20 x P(0 conceded) 0.16 (xGC90 2.22 x fixture 0.93) x 1pt
P(>=12 defensive actions) 0.05 at 7.9/90 x P(start) 0.22 x 2pt
bonus90 0.09 x sqrt(fixture) 1.04 x 0.19 of a match
yellow90 0.06, red90 0.000 x 0.19 of a match
Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0. Rates from 660 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 73% own record / 27% MID/<=4.5m cohort (n=8, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The spread around it
Ceiling (90th)
2.0
Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0. Rates from 660 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 73% own record / 27% MID/<=4.5m cohort (n=8, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Floor (10th)
0.0
Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0. Rates from 660 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 73% own record / 27% MID/<=4.5m cohort (n=8, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 10+
0%
Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0. Rates from 660 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 73% own record / 27% MID/<=4.5m cohort (n=8, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 2 or fewer
92%
Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0. Rates from 660 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 73% own record / 27% MID/<=4.5m cohort (n=8, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The minutes model
Starts
22%
Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0 · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Reaches 60 minutes
20%
Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0 · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Off the bench
0%
Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0 · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Does not appear
78%
Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0 · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: low
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
history_past 2021/22 (w0.71, 905min), 2015/16 (w0.29, 72min); status=a (available); age 29.0
What this model does not include
Read before trusting the number
What FPL itself projects for GW6
FPL’s ep_next
0.0
Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[288].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 20 sec ago · confidence: high
Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.
What this is built from
Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.
Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.