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Explore · Players

Havertz

‹ All players

Forward for Arsenal, £7.5m.

ARSFWD

ForwardArsenal

Kai Havertz

£7.5mFit100% chance of playing

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

1.7

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

8.3

5 fixtures in GW8–12.

xMins

31

37% to start, 30% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

6.2%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

2.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4. Rates from 1208 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 82% own record / 18% FWD cohort (n=51, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 6 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among forwards with 450+ minutes on record.

Goal threat

0.34 xG per 90

Not ranked: only 14 forwards clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Chance creation

0.07 xA per 90

Not ranked: only 14 forwards clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Attacking involvement

0.41 xGI per 90

Not ranked: only 14 forwards clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Defensive work

2.2 defensive actions per 90

Not ranked: only 14 forwards clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Starting security

18% of team games started

Not ranked: only 14 forwards clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

14.0 BPS per 90

Not ranked: only 14 forwards clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

3.1 points per £m

Not ranked: only 14 forwards clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • EVE H3
  • LIV A4
  • HUL H2
  • NEW A3
  • MCI H4
  1. GW8vs EVE (difficulty 3 of 5)1.7
  2. GW9at LIV (difficulty 4 of 5)1.5
  3. GW10vs HUL (difficulty 2 of 5)1.9
  4. GW11at NEW (difficulty 3 of 5)1.6
  5. GW12vs MCI (difficulty 4 of 5)1.6

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW8-GW12: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[26].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

100%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£7.5m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[26].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[26].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: high

Owned

6.2%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[26].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: high

His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of most players right now.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 6 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    36 pts · 2 goals · 3 assists

    577 min
    Starts
    7
    xG
    3.31
    xA
    0.64
    xGC
    6.68
    DefCon
    32
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    143

  2. 2024/25

    97 pts · 9 goals · 3 assists

    1872 min
    Starts
    21
    xG
    9.53
    xA
    1.65
    xGC
    19.32
    DefCon
    99
    Bonus
    14
    BPS
    343

  3. 2023/24

    180 pts · 13 goals · 10 assists

    2627 min
    Starts
    30
    xG
    12.36
    xA
    3.88
    xGC
    21.03
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    15
    BPS
    515

  4. 2022/23

    102 pts · 7 goals · 1 assists

    2565 min
    Starts
    30
    xG
    11.58
    xA
    2.75
    xGC
    38.25
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    13
    BPS
    301

  5. 2021/22

    112 pts · 8 goals · 4 assists

    1802 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    271

  6. 2020/21

    91 pts · 4 goals · 6 assists

    1512 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    268
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+0.83

    P(start) 0.37 x [P(60+|start) 0.83 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.15 x 1pt

  • goals+0.68

    xG90 0.46 x fixture 1.08 x 0.34 of a match x 4pt

  • bonus+0.20

    bonus90 0.56 x sqrt(fixture) 1.04 x 0.34 of a match

  • assists+0.11

    xA90 0.10 x fixture 1.08 x 0.34 of a match x 3pt

  • cards-0.09

    yellow90 0.25, red90 0.001 x 0.34 of a match

  • defensiveContribution+0.00

    P(>=12 defensive actions) 0.00 at 4.7/90 x P(start) 0.37 x 2pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4. Rates from 1208 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 82% own record / 18% FWD cohort (n=51, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

6.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW8 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4. Rates from 1208 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 82% own record / 18% FWD cohort (n=51, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW8 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4. Rates from 1208 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 82% own record / 18% FWD cohort (n=51, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

2%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW8 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4. Rates from 1208 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 82% own record / 18% FWD cohort (n=51, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

77%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW8 H v EVE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4. Rates from 1208 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 82% own record / 18% FWD cohort (n=51, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

37%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4 · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

30%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4 · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

15%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4 · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

48%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4 · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 577min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1872min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2627min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 27.4

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW8

FPL’s ep_next

2.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[26].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 27 sec ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Havertz to my squadCompare him with others