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Explore · Players

Armstrong

‹ All players

Midfielder for Everton, £5.0m.

EVEMID

MidfielderEverton

Harrison Armstrong

£5.0mFit100% chance of playing

Modest goal threat, 0.06 xG per 90, 39 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27.

xPts next

0.3

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

1.7

5 fixtures in GW8–12.

xMins

8

11% to start, 4% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

0.3%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

1.5

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 A v ARS (FDR 5). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8. Rates from 384 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 62% own record / 38% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 2 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among midfielders with 450+ minutes on record.

Modest goal threat

0.06 xG per 90

39 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Low chance creation

0.08 xA per 90

41 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Low attacking involvement

0.15 xGI per 90

44 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Modest defensive work

8.3 defensive actions per 90

Top 45% of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Useful starting security

18% of team games started

Top 32% of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Low bonus pull

13.9 BPS per 90

52 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Modest value

3.8 points per £m

37 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • ARS A5
  • NEW A3
  • COV H2
  • BRE A3
  • LIV H4
  1. GW8at ARS (difficulty 5 of 5)0.3
  2. GW9at NEW (difficulty 3 of 5)0.3
  3. GW10vs COV (difficulty 2 of 5)0.4
  4. GW11at BRE (difficulty 3 of 5)0.3
  5. GW12vs LIV (difficulty 4 of 5)0.3

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW8-GW12: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[244].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

100%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£5.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[244].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[244].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: high

Owned

0.3%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[244].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: high

His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of most players right now.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 2 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    21 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    524 min
    Starts
    6
    xG
    0.79
    xA
    0.22
    xGC
    10.93
    DefCon
    50
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    84

  2. 2024/25

    2 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    47 min
    Starts
    0
    xG
    0.37
    xA
    0.00
    xGC
    0.45
    DefCon
    3
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    1
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+0.25

    P(start) 0.11 x [P(60+|start) 0.33 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.10 x 1pt

  • goals+0.04

    xG90 0.14 x fixture 0.67 x 0.09 of a match x 5pt

  • cards-0.01

    yellow90 0.13, red90 0.005 x 0.09 of a match

  • assists+0.01

    xA90 0.06 x fixture 0.67 x 0.09 of a match x 3pt

  • cleanSheet+0.01

    P(60+) 0.04 x P(0 conceded) 0.21 (xGC90 1.74 x fixture 1.43) x 1pt

  • bonus+0.01

    bonus90 0.07 x sqrt(fixture) 0.82 x 0.09 of a match

  • defensiveContribution+0.00

    P(>=12 defensive actions) 0.02 at 9.6/90 x P(start) 0.11 x 2pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 A v ARS (FDR 5). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8. Rates from 384 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 62% own record / 38% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

1.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW8 A v ARS (FDR 5). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8. Rates from 384 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 62% own record / 38% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW8 A v ARS (FDR 5). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8. Rates from 384 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 62% own record / 38% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

0%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW8 A v ARS (FDR 5). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8. Rates from 384 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 62% own record / 38% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

98%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW8 A v ARS (FDR 5). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8. Rates from 384 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 62% own record / 38% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

11%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8 · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

4%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8 · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

10%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8 · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

79%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8 · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.71, 524min), 2024/25 (w0.29, 47min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 19.8

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW8

FPL’s ep_next

1.5

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[244].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 46 sec ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

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