0000
Explore · Players
Defender for Everton, £6.2m.
DefenderEverton
James Tarkowski
Modest goal threat, 0.04 xG per 90, 14 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27.
xPts next
3.8
His projected score in the next gameweek.
xPts window
18.1
5 fixtures in GW6–10.
xMins
77
86% to start, 83% to reach 60 minutes.
Ownership
16.9%
Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.
Form
11.0
FPL’s own recent-form average.
Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v HUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9. Rates from 3242 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
What this projection could see
Projected from his full record: 10 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.
Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.
Modest goal threat
0.04 xG per 90
14 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27
The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.
Low chance creation
0.01 xA per 90
24 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27
The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.
The schedule ahead
The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.
Set-piece duty
FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[229].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: high
Availability
FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.
No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.
Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.
Price
£6.2m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[229].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: high
Since the season opened
+0.2m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[229].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: high
Owned
16.9%
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[229].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: high
Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.
2025/26
170 pts · 2 goals · 3 assists
Points, by where they come from
P(start) 0.86 x [P(60+|start) 0.96 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.04 x 1pt
Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.
Low attacking involvement
0.04 xGI per 90
18 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27
The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.
Useful defensive work
10.2 defensive actions per 90
Top 22% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27
Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.
Useful defensive solidity
1.39 xGC per 90
Top 34% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27
Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.
Modest starting security
13% of team games started
Top 50% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27
Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.
Elite bonus pull
27.6 BPS per 90
Top 2% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27
The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.
Elite value
6.9 points per £m
Top 2% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27
What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.
Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.
2024/25
105 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists
2023/24
117 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists
2022/23
106 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists
2021/22
83 pts · 1 goals · 2 assists
2020/21
109 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists
2019/20
143 pts · 2 goals · 3 assists
2018/19
97 pts · 3 goals · 2 assists
2017/18
101 pts · 0 goals · 1 assists
2016/17
23 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
P(60+) 0.83 x P(0 conceded) 0.29 (xGC90 1.41 x fixture 0.91) x 4pt
P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.47 at 9.6/90 x P(start) 0.86 x 2pt
xG90 0.06 x fixture 1.06 x 0.85 of a match x 6pt
P(start) 0.86 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.25 over 88 mins + P(cameo) 0.04 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.31 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.41 x fixture 0.91)
bonus90 0.32 x sqrt(fixture) 1.03 x 0.85 of a match
yellow90 0.21, red90 0.000 x 0.85 of a match
xA90 0.06 x fixture 1.06 x 0.85 of a match x 3pt
Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v HUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9. Rates from 3242 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The spread around it
Ceiling (90th)
8.0
Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 A v HUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9. Rates from 3242 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Floor (10th)
0.0
Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 A v HUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9. Rates from 3242 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 10+
4%
Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 A v HUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9. Rates from 3242 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 2 or fewer
43%
Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 A v HUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9. Rates from 3242 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=10, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The minutes model
Starts
86%
Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9 · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Reaches 60 minutes
83%
Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9 · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Off the bench
4%
Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9 · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Does not appear
10%
Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9 · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2922min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 3420min); status=a (available); age 33.9
What this model does not include
Read before trusting the number
What FPL itself projects for GW6
FPL’s ep_next
11.0
Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[229].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 11 sec ago · confidence: high
Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.
What this is built from
Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.