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Explore · Players

Henderson

‹ All players

Goalkeeper for Crystal Palace, £4.9m.

CRYGKP

GoalkeeperCrystal Palace

Dean Henderson

£4.9mDoubt50% chance of playing

FPL saysFoot injury - 50% chance of playing

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

1.6

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

7.8

5 fixtures in GW8–12.

xMins

40

45% to start, 43% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

1.1%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

0.0

Zero until a gameweek is played.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 H v NEW (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6. Rates from 3096 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% GKP/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 6 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among goalkeepers with 450+ minutes on record.

Defensive solidity

2.16 xGC per 90

Not ranked: 270 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Shot-stopping volume

4.00 saves per 90

Not ranked: 270 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Save points banked on weeks no clean sheet arrives.

Starting security

8% of team games started

Not ranked: 270 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

12.3 BPS per 90

Not ranked: 270 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

1.0 points per £m

Not ranked: 270 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • NEW H3
  • TOT A3
  • LIV H4
  • COV A2
  • HUL H2
  1. GW8vs NEW (difficulty 3 of 5)1.6
  2. GW9at TOT (difficulty 3 of 5)1.5
  3. GW10vs LIV (difficulty 4 of 5)1.5
  4. GW11at COV (difficulty 2 of 5)1.6
  5. GW12vs HUL (difficulty 2 of 5)1.7

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW8-GW12: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[198].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: high

Availability

Foot injury - 50% chance of playing

50%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£4.9m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[198].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

-0.1m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[198].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: high

Owned

1.1%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[198].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 7 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    131 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    3330 min
    Starts
    37
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.11
    xGC
    51.40
    DefCon
    0
    Bonus
    7
    BPS
    538

  2. 2024/25

    135 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    3420 min
    Starts
    38
    xG
    0.01
    xA
    0.02
    xGC
    50.33
    DefCon
    0
    Bonus
    8
    BPS
    466

  3. 2023/24

    48 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    1620 min
    Starts
    18
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.01
    xGC
    26.47
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    2
    BPS
    293

  4. 2022/23

    82 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    1620 min
    Starts
    18
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.01
    xGC
    26.97
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    12
    BPS
    367

  5. 2021/22

    0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    0 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    0

  6. 2020/21

    44 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    1125 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    1
    BPS
    218

  7. 2019/20

    160 pts · 0 goals · 1 assists

    3240 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    16
    BPS
    688
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+0.92

    P(start) 0.45 x [P(60+|start) 0.96 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.03 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.49

    P(60+) 0.43 x P(0 conceded) 0.28 (xGC90 1.39 x fixture 0.93) x 4pt

  • saves+0.24

    P(start) 0.45 x E[floor(saves/3)] at lambda 2.61 + P(cameo) 0.03 x E[floor(saves/3)] at lambda 0.66 x 1pt (saves90 2.89 x fixture 0.93)

  • goalsConceded-0.18

    P(start) 0.45 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.26 over 88 mins + P(cameo) 0.03 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.32 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.39 x fixture 0.93)

  • bonus+0.09

    bonus90 0.20 x sqrt(fixture) 1.04 x 0.45 of a match

  • cards-0.05

    yellow90 0.10, red90 0.000 x 0.45 of a match

  • misc+0.04

    own goals, penalties missed and penalties saved, from history_past rates

  • assists+0.00

    xA90 0.00 x fixture 1.08 x 0.45 of a match x 3pt

  • goals+0.00

    xG90 0.00 x fixture 1.08 x 0.45 of a match x 10pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 H v NEW (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6. Rates from 3096 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% GKP/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

6.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW8 H v NEW (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6. Rates from 3096 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% GKP/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW8 H v NEW (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6. Rates from 3096 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% GKP/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

0%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW8 H v NEW (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6. Rates from 3096 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% GKP/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

77%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW8 H v NEW (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6. Rates from 3096 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 85% own record / 15% GKP/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=15, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

45%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6 · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

43%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6 · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

3%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6 · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

52%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6 · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1620min); chance_of_playing_next_round=50%; age 29.6

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Availability: chance_of_playing_next_round=50%.
  • FPL news: Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a save point is awarded per 3 saves. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many saves make a block.

What FPL itself projects for GW8

FPL’s ep_next

0.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[198].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 55 sec ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Henderson to my squadCompare him with others