0000
Theme
Dark theme
OverNil
  • Home
  • Team
  • Decisions
    • Transfers
    • Captain
    • Bench
    • Chips
    • Planner
    • Route
    • Decision rooms
    • Deadline
  • Live
    • Rivals
    • Win chances
  • Explore
    • Players
    • Projections
    • Line-ups
    • Fixtures
    • Stats
    • Scorers
    • Gameweek
    • Set and forget
    • Rising players
    • News
    • Prices
    • Price changes
MenuHow it works
  • Home
  • Team
  • Decisions
  • Live
  • Explore
GW8000d 00h1d 01hto deadline
Connect team
MenuAccount
PlayersProjectionsLine-upsFixturesStatsScorersGameweekSet and forgetRising playersNewsPricesPrice changes
0000
AccountPlansHomeTerms of usePrivacyDisclaimer

A paid plan is changed or cancelled from your account.

Designed and built byStudio Javanainen

Explore · Players

Grimes

‹ All players

Midfielder for Coventry City, £4.8m.

COVMID

MidfielderCoventry City

Matt Grimes

£4.8mFit

Low goal threat, 0.02 xG per 90, 54 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27.

xPts next

0.1

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

0.4

5 fixtures in GW8–12.

xMins

2

2% to start, 2% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

0.1%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

2.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 H v FUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3. Rates from 76 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 22% own record / 78% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 2 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among midfielders with 450+ minutes on record.

Low goal threat

0.02 xG per 90

54 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Low chance creation

0.02 xA per 90

55 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Low attacking involvement

0.04 xGI per 90

57 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Modest defensive work

7.3 defensive actions per 90

33 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Useful starting security

18% of team games started

Top 32% of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Low bonus pull

12.0 BPS per 90

56 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Low value

3.1 points per £m

48 of 57 midfielders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • FUL H2
  • SUN H3
  • EVE A3
  • CRY H2
  • LEE A3
  1. GW8vs FUL (difficulty 2 of 5)0.1
  2. GW9vs SUN (difficulty 3 of 5)0.1
  3. GW10at EVE (difficulty 3 of 5)0.1
  4. GW11vs CRY (difficulty 2 of 5)0.1
  5. GW12at LEE (difficulty 3 of 5)0.1

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW8-GW12: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

  • Penalties4th in line
  • Corners and indirectfirst choice

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[184].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£4.8m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[184].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

-0.2m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[184].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: high

Owned

0.1%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[184].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 2 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2015/16

    3 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    90 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    4

  2. 2014/15

    3 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    44 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    5
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+0.05

    P(start) 0.02 x [P(60+|start) 0.90 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.00 x 1pt

  • goals+0.01

    xG90 0.09 x fixture 1.23 x 0.02 of a match x 5pt

  • cleanSheet+0.01

    P(60+) 0.02 x P(0 conceded) 0.41 (xGC90 1.28 x fixture 0.78) x 1pt

  • assists+0.01

    xA90 0.08 x fixture 1.23 x 0.02 of a match x 3pt

  • cards-0.00

    yellow90 0.17, red90 0.011 x 0.02 of a match

  • defensiveContribution+0.00

    P(>=12 defensive actions) 0.09 at 8.6/90 x P(start) 0.02 x 2pt

  • bonus+0.00

    bonus90 0.14 x sqrt(fixture) 1.11 x 0.02 of a match

Projection · basis: xPts: GW8 H v FUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3. Rates from 76 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 22% own record / 78% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

0.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW8 H v FUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3. Rates from 76 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 22% own record / 78% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW8 H v FUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3. Rates from 76 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 22% own record / 78% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

0%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW8 H v FUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3. Rates from 76 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 22% own record / 78% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

99%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW8 H v FUL (FDR 2). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3. Rates from 76 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 22% own record / 78% MID/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=135, fitted on a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

2%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3 · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

2%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3 · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

0%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3 · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

98%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3 · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: low

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2015/16 (w0.71, 90min), 2014/15 (w0.29, 44min); status=a (available); age 31.3

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Age 31.3: minutes discounted 3%.
  • xG/xA unavailable for the seasons used (FPL only published expected_* from 2022/23): actual goals and assists stood in.
  • Only 76 weighted minutes of history support these per-90 rates, under one full match. They are shrunk 76% onto the MID/4.6-5.5m cohort mean, closer to a cohort average than a measurement of this player.
  • Defensive contribution unavailable before 2024/25 for the seasons used: substituted the MID/4.6-5.5m cohort mean (9.0 actions/90).
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.
  • 78% of this xPts figure rests on the MID/4.6-5.5m cohort, not on this player's own 76 weighted minutes. How far to lean on the cohort follows from how much a rate carries between seasons.

What FPL itself projects for GW8

FPL’s ep_next

2.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[184].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 57 sec ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 449 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Grimes to my squadCompare him with others