0000
Theme
Dark theme
OverNil
  • Home
  • Team
  • Decisions
    • Transfers
    • Captain
    • Bench
    • Chips
    • Planner
    • Route
    • Decision rooms
    • Deadline
  • Live
    • Rivals
    • Win chances
  • Explore
    • Players
    • Projections
    • Line-ups
    • Fixtures
    • Stats
    • Scorers
    • Gameweek
    • Set and forget
    • Rising players
    • News
    • Prices
    • Price changes
MenuHow it works
  • Home
  • Team
  • Decisions
  • Live
  • Explore
GW6000d 00h1d 11hto deadline
Connect team
MenuAccount
PlayersProjectionsLine-upsFixturesStatsScorersGameweekSet and forgetRising playersNewsPricesPrice changes
0000
AccountPlansHomeTerms of usePrivacyDisclaimer

A paid plan is changed or cancelled from your account.

Designed and built byStudio Javanainen

Explore · Players

Fofana

‹ All players

Defender for Chelsea, £5.0m.

CHEDEF

DefenderChelsea

Wesley Fofana

£5.0mFit100% chance of playing

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

1.8

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

8.7

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

40

46% to start, 40% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

0.2%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

2.5

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8. Rates from 1528 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 5 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

Goal threat

0.00 xG per 90

Not ranked: 312 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Chance creation

0.02 xA per 90

Not ranked: 312 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Attacking involvement

0.02 xGI per 90

Not ranked: 312 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Defensive work

13.6 defensive actions per 90

Not ranked: 312 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Defensive solidity

1.63 xGC per 90

Not ranked: 312 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Starting security

11% of team games started

Not ranked: 312 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

10.1 BPS per 90

Not ranked: 312 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

1.6 points per £m

Not ranked: 312 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • BOU H3
  • EVE A3
  • TOT H2
  • MUN H4
  • SUN A3
  1. GW6vs BOU (difficulty 3 of 5)1.8
  2. GW7at EVE (difficulty 3 of 5)1.6
  3. GW8vs TOT (difficulty 2 of 5)1.9
  4. GW9vs MUN (difficulty 4 of 5)1.7
  5. GW10at SUN (difficulty 3 of 5)1.6

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated just now · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[145].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated just now · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

100%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£5.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[145].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated just now · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.0m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[145].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated just now · confidence: high

Owned

0.2%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[145].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated just now · confidence: high

His price has not moved since the game opened, which is true of most players right now.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 6 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    65 pts · 0 goals · 2 assists

    1718 min
    Starts
    20
    xG
    0.72
    xA
    0.60
    xGC
    25.81
    DefCon
    206
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    288

  2. 2024/25

    26 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    1172 min
    Starts
    14
    xG
    0.44
    xA
    0.18
    xGC
    14.76
    DefCon
    88
    Bonus
    2
    BPS
    162

  3. 2023/24

    0 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    0 min
    Starts
    0
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.00
    xGC
    0.00
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    0

  4. 2022/23

    37 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists

    1362 min
    Starts
    14
    xG
    0.74
    xA
    0.29
    xGC
    22.96
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    244

  5. 2021/22

    17 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    630 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    2
    BPS
    112

  6. 2020/21

    71 pts · 0 goals · 1 assists

    2260 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    464
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.08

    P(start) 0.46 x [P(60+|start) 0.86 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.22 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.55

    P(60+) 0.40 x P(0 conceded) 0.35 (xGC90 1.35 x fixture 0.93) x 4pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.28

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.30 at 9.6/90 x P(start) 0.46 x 2pt

  • cards-0.21

    yellow90 0.29, red90 0.059 x 0.45 of a match

  • goalsConceded-0.15

    P(start) 0.46 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.06 over 76 mins + P(cameo) 0.22 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.31 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.35 x fixture 0.93)

  • goals+0.13

    xG90 0.04 x fixture 1.08 x 0.45 of a match x 6pt

  • bonus+0.08

    bonus90 0.18 x sqrt(fixture) 1.04 x 0.45 of a match

  • assists+0.04

    xA90 0.03 x fixture 1.08 x 0.45 of a match x 3pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8. Rates from 1528 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

6.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8. Rates from 1528 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8. Rates from 1528 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

1%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8. Rates from 1528 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

76%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8. Rates from 1528 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 83% own record / 17% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

46%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

40%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

22%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

32%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 1718min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1172min), 2022/23 (w0.15, 1362min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 25.8

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

2.5

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[145].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated just now · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Fofana to my squadCompare him with others