0000
Explore · Players
Forward for Chelsea, £5.9m.
ForwardChelsea
Danny Welbeck
Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.
xPts next
2.5
His projected score in the next gameweek.
xPts window
12.3
5 fixtures in GW6–10.
xMins
48
56% to start, 50% to reach 60 minutes.
Ownership
1.0%
Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.
Form
1.5
FPL’s own recent-form average.
Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9. Rates from 2130 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% FWD/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=23, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
What this projection could see
Projected from his full record: 18 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.
Ranked among forwards with 450+ minutes on record.
Goal threat
0.00 xG per 90
Not ranked: 85 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.
Chance creation
0.15 xA per 90
Not ranked: 85 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.
Attacking involvement
0.15 xGI per 90
Not ranked: 85 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.
Defensive work
5.3 defensive actions per 90
Not ranked: 85 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.
Starting security
3% of team games started
Not ranked: 85 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.
Bonus pull
15.9 BPS per 90
Not ranked: 85 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.
Value
0.7 points per £m
Not ranked: 85 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.
What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.
The schedule ahead
The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.
Set-piece duty
FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[136].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high
Availability
FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.
Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.
Price
£5.9m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[136].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high
Since the season opened
-0.1m
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[136].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high
Owned
1.0%
Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[136].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high
Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.
Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.
2025/26
126 pts · 13 goals · 1 assists
2024/25
125 pts · 10 goals · 5 assists
2023/24
79 pts · 5 goals · 4 assists
2022/23
91 pts · 6 goals · 5 assists
2021/22
89 pts · 6 goals · 4 assists
2020/21
89 pts · 6 goals · 4 assists
2019/20
39 pts · 2 goals · 1 assists
2018/19
19 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists
2017/18
70 pts · 5 goals · 2 assists
2016/17
37 pts · 2 goals · 2 assists
2015/16
48 pts · 4 goals · 3 assists
2014/15
89 pts · 4 goals · 7 assists
2013/14
100 pts · 9 goals · 4 assists
2012/13
57 pts · 1 goals · 4 assists
2011/12
112 pts · 9 goals · 5 assists
2010/11
79 pts · 6 goals · 1 assists
2009/10
6 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists
2008/09
9 pts · 1 goals · 0 assists
Points, by where they come from
P(start) 0.56 x [P(60+|start) 0.90 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.16 x 1pt
xG90 0.44 x fixture 1.08 x 0.53 of a match x 4pt
bonus90 0.67 x sqrt(fixture) 1.04 x 0.53 of a match
yellow90 0.21, red90 0.000 x 0.53 of a match
xA90 0.06 x fixture 1.08 x 0.53 of a match x 3pt
own goals, penalties missed and penalties saved, from history_past rates
P(>=12 defensive actions) 0.00 at 4.4/90 x P(start) 0.56 x 2pt
Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9. Rates from 2130 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% FWD/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=23, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The spread around it
Ceiling (90th)
7.0
Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9. Rates from 2130 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% FWD/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=23, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Floor (10th)
0.0
Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9. Rates from 2130 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% FWD/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=23, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 10+
3%
Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9. Rates from 2130 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% FWD/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=23, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Chance of 2 or fewer
64%
Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v BOU (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9. Rates from 2130 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% FWD/5.6-7.0m cohort (n=23, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
The minutes model
Starts
56%
Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9 · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Reaches 60 minutes
50%
Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9 · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Off the bench
16%
Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9 · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
Does not appear
29%
Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9 · updated 2 min ago · confidence: medium
A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.
history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2249min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2109min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 1687min); chance_of_playing_next_round=100%; age 35.9
What this model does not include
Read before trusting the number
What FPL itself projects for GW6
FPL’s ep_next
1.5
Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[136].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 2 min ago · confidence: high
Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.
What this is built from
Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.
Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.