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Explore · Players

Saka

‹ All players

Midfielder for Arsenal, £9.6m.

ARSMID

MidfielderArsenal

Bukayo Saka

£9.6mFit

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

4.1

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

19.7

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

58

66% to start, 60% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

14.3%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

5.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1. Rates from 2200 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% MID cohort (n=199, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 8 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among midfielders with 450+ minutes on record.

Goal threat

0.70 xG per 90

Not ranked: 416 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Chance creation

0.21 xA per 90

Not ranked: 416 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

Attacking involvement

0.91 xGI per 90

Not ranked: 416 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Defensive work

6.7 defensive actions per 90

Not ranked: 416 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Starting security

13% of team games started

Not ranked: 416 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

29.6 BPS per 90

Not ranked: 416 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

3.3 points per £m

Not ranked: 416 minutes is under the 450 this comparison needs.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • LEE H3
  • NFO A3
  • EVE H3
  • LIV A4
  • HUL H2
  1. GW6vs LEE (difficulty 3 of 5)4.1
  2. GW7at NFO (difficulty 3 of 5)3.7
  3. GW8vs EVE (difficulty 3 of 5)4.1
  4. GW9at LIV (difficulty 4 of 5)3.5
  5. GW10vs HUL (difficulty 2 of 5)4.4

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

  • Penaltiesfirst choice
  • Direct free kickssecond in line
  • Corners and indirectsecond in line

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[12].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£9.6m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[12].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.1m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[12].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Owned

14.3%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[12].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 8 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    157 pts · 7 goals · 10 assists

    2218 min
    Starts
    25
    xG
    7.57
    xA
    7.16
    xGC
    15.57
    DefCon
    184
    Bonus
    18
    BPS
    570

  2. 2024/25

    127 pts · 6 goals · 11 assists

    1724 min
    Starts
    20
    xG
    6.87
    xA
    7.78
    xGC
    17.72
    DefCon
    108
    Bonus
    18
    BPS
    508

  3. 2023/24

    226 pts · 16 goals · 12 assists

    2922 min
    Starts
    35
    xG
    15.40
    xA
    10.90
    xGC
    25.66
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    29
    BPS
    776

  4. 2022/23

    202 pts · 14 goals · 12 assists

    3183 min
    Starts
    37
    xG
    11.49
    xA
    5.97
    xGC
    39.66
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    19
    BPS
    678

  5. 2021/22

    179 pts · 11 goals · 9 assists

    2978 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    18
    BPS
    566

  6. 2020/21

    114 pts · 5 goals · 5 assists

    2554 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    8
    BPS
    414

  7. 2019/20

    71 pts · 1 goals · 6 assists

    1746 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    4
    BPS
    259

  8. 2018/19

    1 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    7 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    3
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.48

    P(start) 0.66 x [P(60+|start) 0.90 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.21 x 1pt

  • goals+1.16

    xG90 0.33 x fixture 1.08 x 0.64 of a match x 5pt

  • assists+0.63

    xA90 0.31 x fixture 1.08 x 0.64 of a match x 3pt

  • bonus+0.51

    bonus90 0.76 x sqrt(fixture) 1.04 x 0.64 of a match

  • cleanSheet+0.31

    P(60+) 0.60 x P(0 conceded) 0.52 (xGC90 0.79 x fixture 0.93) x 1pt

  • cards-0.07

    yellow90 0.11, red90 0.001 x 0.64 of a match

  • defensiveContribution+0.04

    P(>=12 defensive actions) 0.03 at 7.1/90 x P(start) 0.66 x 2pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1. Rates from 2200 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% MID cohort (n=199, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

9.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1. Rates from 2200 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% MID cohort (n=199, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1. Rates from 2200 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% MID cohort (n=199, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

8%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1. Rates from 2200 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% MID cohort (n=199, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

42%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1. Rates from 2200 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% MID cohort (n=199, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

66%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

60%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

21%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

12%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 2218min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 1724min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2922min); status=a (available); age 25.1

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.
  • Listed first-choice penalty taker. NOT added on top of xG: history_past xG already contains any penalties they took, and there is no public way to tell whether they were the taker then.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

5.0

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[12].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Saka to my squadCompare him with others