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Explore · Players

Van Hecke

‹ All players

Defender for Spurs, £4.9m.

TOTDEF

DefenderSpurs

Jan Paul van Hecke

£4.9mDoubt75% chance of playing

FPL saysFoot injury - 75% chance of playing

High goal threat, 0.14 xG per 90, top 14% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27.

xPts next

2.2

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

12.6

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

59

67% to start, 64% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

6.3%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

7.0

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v MUN (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3. Rates from 3021 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 4 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among defenders with 450+ minutes on record.

High goal threat

0.14 xG per 90

Top 14% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The biggest single scoring event, and the part that repeats.

Useful chance creation

0.08 xA per 90

Top 24% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The second scoring route, and it survives a missed chance.

High attacking involvement

0.22 xGI per 90

Top 14% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The single best summary of a team’s attacking play.

Modest defensive work

8.6 defensive actions per 90

16 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Two repeatable points that do not need a clean sheet.

Modest defensive solidity

1.56 xGC per 90

16 of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Modest starting security

13% of team games started

Top 50% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Useful bonus pull

17.0 BPS per 90

Top 36% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Useful value

4.9 points per £m

Top 30% of 25 defenders · 450+ minutes in 2026/27

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • MUN A4
  • COV H2
  • CHE A4
  • CRY H2
  • LEE A3
  1. GW6at MUN (difficulty 4 of 5)2.2
  2. GW7vs COV (difficulty 2 of 5)2.9
  3. GW8at CHE (difficulty 4 of 5)2.2
  4. GW9vs CRY (difficulty 2 of 5)2.9
  5. GW10at LEE (difficulty 3 of 5)2.4

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated just now · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[112].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated just now · confidence: high

Availability

Foot injury - 75% chance of playing

75%FPL's own figure

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£4.9m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[112].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated just now · confidence: high

Since the season opened

-0.1m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[112].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated just now · confidence: high

Owned

6.3%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[112].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated just now · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 4 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    148 pts · 3 goals · 3 assists

    3210 min
    Starts
    36
    xG
    3.31
    xA
    1.57
    xGC
    46.27
    DefCon
    317
    Bonus
    8
    BPS
    575

  2. 2024/25

    87 pts · 1 goals · 1 assists

    2960 min
    Starts
    33
    xG
    1.32
    xA
    1.41
    xGC
    44.67
    DefCon
    230
    Bonus
    7
    BPS
    406

  3. 2023/24

    61 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    2368 min
    Starts
    26
    xG
    1.42
    xA
    0.93
    xGC
    37.22
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    3
    BPS
    454

  4. 2022/23

    6 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    291 min
    Starts
    3
    xG
    0.55
    xA
    0.04
    xGC
    6.72
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    0
    BPS
    54
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.39

    P(start) 0.67 x [P(60+|start) 0.96 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.08 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+0.51

    P(60+) 0.64 x P(0 conceded) 0.20 (xGC90 1.33 x fixture 1.25) x 4pt

  • defensiveContribution+0.45

    P(>=10 defensive actions) 0.34 at 8.8/90 x P(start) 0.67 x 2pt

  • goalsConceded-0.38

    P(start) 0.67 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 1.61 over 86 mins + P(cameo) 0.08 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.41 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 1.33 x fixture 1.25)

  • goals+0.24

    xG90 0.08 x fixture 0.80 x 0.66 of a match x 6pt

  • cards-0.16

    yellow90 0.22, red90 0.007 x 0.66 of a match

  • bonus+0.12

    bonus90 0.21 x sqrt(fixture) 0.89 x 0.66 of a match

  • assists+0.07

    xA90 0.04 x fixture 0.80 x 0.66 of a match x 3pt

  • misc-0.02

    own goals, penalties missed and penalties saved, from history_past rates

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 A v MUN (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3. Rates from 3021 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

6.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 A v MUN (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3. Rates from 3021 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

0.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 A v MUN (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3. Rates from 3021 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

1%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 A v MUN (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3. Rates from 3021 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

68%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 A v MUN (FDR 4). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3. Rates from 3021 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 91% own record / 9% DEF/4.6-5.5m cohort (n=57, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

67%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

64%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

8%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

25%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3 · updated just now · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3210min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 2960min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2368min); chance_of_playing_next_round=75%; age 26.3

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Availability: chance_of_playing_next_round=75%.
  • FPL news: Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a defensive-contribution point needs DEF>=10, MID>=12, FWD>=12 defensive actions. FPL publishes what the point is worth but never how many actions earn it, so this number is read off FPL's rules page, not FPL data.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

5.2

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[112].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated just now · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

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