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Explore · Players

Raya

‹ All players

Goalkeeper for Arsenal, £6.1m.

ARSGKP

GoalkeeperArsenal

David Raya Martín

£6.1mFit

Nothing on record ranks him yet. The projection below uses players of the same position and price.

xPts next

3.8

His projected score in the next gameweek.

xPts window

18.8

5 fixtures in GW6–10.

xMins

84

94% to start, 90% to reach 60 minutes.

Ownership

42.4%

Effective ownership adds captaincy share, which FPL does not publish.

Form

7.5

FPL’s own recent-form average.

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1. Rates from 3285 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 90% own record / 10% GKP cohort (n=24, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

What this projection could see

Projected from his full record: 5 played seasons. The same record every screen reads, so this figure matches the ranked list, the pitch and a comparison.

What kind of asset he is

Ranked among goalkeepers with 450+ minutes on record.

Defensive solidity

0.81 xGC per 90

Not ranked: only 16 goalkeepers clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

Where defenders and keepers make most of their points.

Shot-stopping volume

1.80 saves per 90

Not ranked: only 16 goalkeepers clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

Save points banked on weeks no clean sheet arrives.

Starting security

13% of team games started

Not ranked: only 16 goalkeepers clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

Minutes decide an FPL asset more than ability does.

Bonus pull

20.8 BPS per 90

Not ranked: only 16 goalkeepers clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

The BPS table decides bonus points, and this is it.

Value

4.9 points per £m

Not ranked: only 16 goalkeepers clear 450+ minutes in 2026/27, too few for a percentile.

What decides whether a player earns his squad slot.

The schedule ahead

Next 5 gameweeks

The schedule the projection above is spread across. Each cell is the opponent, home or away, and how hard the match is on FPL’s one-to-five scale, where one is the easiest.

  • LEE H3
  • NFO A3
  • EVE H3
  • LIV A4
  • HUL H2
  1. GW6vs LEE (difficulty 3 of 5)3.8
  2. GW7at NFO (difficulty 3 of 5)3.6
  3. GW8vs EVE (difficulty 3 of 5)3.8
  4. GW9at LIV (difficulty 4 of 5)3.5
  5. GW10vs HUL (difficulty 2 of 5)4.0

Derived · basis: fixtures in the window: counted from fixtures[] over GW6-GW10: 5 gameweeks, 5 fixtures · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

His job at the clubRole, set pieces and availabilityThe parts of a player’s job FPL publishes directly.OpenClose▸

Set-piece duty

FPL lists him in no set-piece order. That is published, not missing.

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[1].penalties_order, FPL's published penalty order · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Availability

FPL flags him as fit and has published no note against him.

No chance-of-playing percentage is published, which for a fit player is normal.

Predicted lineups are not modelled here. FPL publishes none, and a guessed eleven could not be checked.

What the slot costsPrice, ownership and the marketWhat the slot costs, who already holds him, and what has moved.OpenClose▸

Price

£6.1m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[1].now_cost, in tenths of a million · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Since the season opened

+0.1m

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[1].cost_change_start, movement from this season's opening price · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Owned

42.4%

Official · basis: bootstrap-static/elements[1].selected_by_percent, share of all FPL squads · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Price history within a season is not published as a series, only the net movement from the opening price.

Effective ownership needs captaincy share too, and the public API publishes none. The figure above is ownership alone.

Career recordSeason by seasonFetched from this player's own record, 5 seasons of it.OpenClose▸

  1. 2025/26

    162 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    3330 min
    Starts
    37
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.07
    xGC
    27.56
    DefCon
    0
    Bonus
    11
    BPS
    633

  2. 2024/25

    142 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    3420 min
    Starts
    38
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.03
    xGC
    35.03
    DefCon
    0
    Bonus
    10
    BPS
    555

  3. 2023/24

    135 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    2880 min
    Starts
    32
    xG
    0.00
    xA
    0.04
    xGC
    22.51
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    6
    BPS
    569

  4. 2022/23

    166 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    3420 min
    Starts
    38
    xG
    0.11
    xA
    0.12
    xGC
    50.12
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    20
    BPS
    822

  5. 2021/22

    95 pts · 0 goals · 0 assists

    2160 min
    Starts
    not counted
    xG
    not counted
    xA
    not counted
    xGC
    not counted
    DefCon
    not counted
    Bonus
    5
    BPS
    496
Inside the projectionHow the projection was builtEvery component of the number in the hero, and the distribution around it.OpenClose▸

Points, by where they come from

  • appearance+1.88

    P(start) 0.94 x [P(60+|start) 0.97 -> 2pt, else 1pt] + P(cameo) 0.04 x 1pt

  • cleanSheet+1.64

    P(60+) 0.90 x P(0 conceded) 0.45 (xGC90 0.86 x fixture 0.93) x 4pt

  • bonus+0.27

    bonus90 0.27 x sqrt(fixture) 1.04 x 0.93 of a match

  • saves+0.24

    P(start) 0.94 x E[floor(saves/3)] at lambda 1.73 + P(cameo) 0.04 x E[floor(saves/3)] at lambda 0.43 x 1pt (saves90 1.88 x fixture 0.93)

  • goalsConceded-0.18

    P(start) 0.94 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.79 over 89 mins + P(cameo) 0.04 x E[floor(conceded/2)] at lambda 0.20 over 22 mins x -1pt (xGC90 0.86 x fixture 0.93)

  • cards-0.04

    yellow90 0.04, red90 0.000 x 0.93 of a match

  • misc+0.02

    own goals, penalties missed and penalties saved, from history_past rates

  • assists+0.01

    xA90 0.00 x fixture 1.08 x 0.93 of a match x 3pt

Projection · basis: xPts: GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1. Rates from 3285 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 90% own record / 10% GKP cohort (n=24, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The spread around it

Ceiling (90th)

7.0

Projection · basis: ceiling (90th percentile): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1. Rates from 3285 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 90% own record / 10% GKP cohort (n=24, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Floor (10th)

1.0

Projection · basis: floor (10th percentile): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1. Rates from 3285 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 90% own record / 10% GKP cohort (n=24, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 10+

0%

Projection · basis: P(10+ points): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1. Rates from 3285 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 90% own record / 10% GKP cohort (n=24, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Chance of 2 or fewer

43%

Projection · basis: P(2 or fewer points): GW6 H v LEE (FDR 3). fixture adj from fixtures[].team_*_difficulty + teams[].strength_overall_home/away (league mean quality 3.10) - strength_attack_*/strength_defence_* are 0 in preseason. Minutes from history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1. Rates from 3285 weighted minutes of history_past, blended 90% own record / 10% GKP cohort (n=24, fitted on a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season) by share of the points they earn. Scoring from the scoring rules resolved from FPL’s configuration. Unpublished numbers from one shared table of figures FPL has not published. · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

The minutes model

Starts

94%

Projection · basis: P(start): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Reaches 60 minutes

90%

Projection · basis: P(reaching the full appearance threshold): threshold 60 minutes, in force; history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Off the bench

4%

Projection · basis: P(cameo): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

Does not appear

3%

Projection · basis: P(unused): history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1 · updated 1 min ago · confidence: medium

A projection, not a result. It states the most likely outcome, and football regularly disagrees.

history_past 2025/26 (w0.60, 3330min), 2024/25 (w0.25, 3420min), 2023/24 (w0.15, 2880min); status=a (available); age 31.1

What this model does not include

  • manager rotation policy
  • European/cup fixture congestion
  • press conference quotes
  • predicted lineups
  • training-ground reports

Read before trusting the number

  • Age 31.1: minutes discounted 3%.
  • ASSUMPTION: the full appearance award needs 60 minutes and a clean sheet needs 60. FPL publishes neither boundary anywhere in its own data; both are read off FPL's rules page.
  • ASSUMPTION: the deduction applies per 2 goals conceded. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many goals make a block, so what it publishes cannot tell "-1 per goal" from "-1 per 2 goals".
  • ASSUMPTION: a save point is awarded per 3 saves. FPL publishes the points per block but never how many saves make a block.

What FPL itself projects for GW6

FPL’s ep_next

7.5

Official · basis: FPL's own expected points for the next gameweek: bootstrap-static/elements[1].ep_next (FPL's own next-gameweek projection) · updated 1 min ago · confidence: high

Shown beside xPts, not instead of it. FPL’s figure is quantised to one decimal in preseason, so agreement in order is mild evidence.

What this is built from

Built from FPL’s own published season data for 2026/27, using a fixed population of 421 players with a completed season. Everything else is the stated default.

Put him in the squad and the rules answer whether he fits, or set him beside others to compare.

Add Raya to my squadCompare him with others